Parts of Latin America will shift to the right in 2023

By Michael Reid: Senior editor and Bello columnist, The Economist

AFTER A STRING of election victories for the left in Latin America, 2023 will see a swing back to the right. That mainly reflects the continuing unpopularity of incumbents in a region that faces another hard year of modest economic growth and social discontent. At least inflation will fall in most places, thanks to early action by central banks in raising interest rates. Most countries recovered their pre-pandemic level of output and employment in 2022. But wages still lag and few governments can afford expansive fiscal policy. Having grown by 3.5% in 2022, according to the IMF, the region’s economies may expand by only 2% in 2023%. There is a risk of further social explosions of the kind that have shaken several countries since 2019. But Latin Americans may be too busy putting food on the table to protest.

Political attention will focus on Argentina’s presidential election in October. With the Peronist government divided and out of ideas, and with inflation raging, the centre-right opposition should win, provided it stays united. First it will have to decide on a candidate. Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, the mayor of Buenos Aires, is capable and moderate. He will be challenged by Patricia Bullrich, a former security minister whose tough message on crime is popular. In the background is Mauricio Macri, the president from 2015 to 2019, whose government ended in failure but who still harbours ambitions. And keep an eye on Javier Milei, a far-right gadfly. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, the leader of Peronism’s leftist-populist wing, will once again seek a proxy as a candidate but she is a divisive figure.

There are elections, too, in Paraguay in April and in Guatemala in June. In Paraguay the conservative Colorado party, which has ruled for all but five of the past 70 years, faces a strong challenge from a broad but disparate opposition. The party has been hurt by sanctions imposed by the United States on two of their leading figures for corruption (which they deny). Despite discontent, the likely Colorado candidate, Santiago Peña, a former finance minister, has a narrow edge.

With China now looming large, the European Union will hope to regain influence

In Guatemala the election seems unlikely to be free and fair. Government allies control the electoral authority and the courts, and may ban leftist candidates, as happened in 2019. Mario Conde or Zury Rios would continue conservative rule; Sandra Torres, a centrist populist who lost last time round, is likely to run again.

In Mexico, meanwhile, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador will hope to see his Morena party win a gubernatorial election in June in the important State of Mexico, a stronghold of the formerly ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party. Victory there would indicate that Morena would be well placed for the presidential election in 2024.

On paper, 2023 offers an opportunity for international talks on Venezuela, ruled as a dictatorship by Nicolás Maduro. The United States could offer relief from sanctions in return for Mr Maduro’s accepting a free and fair presidential election, due in 2024. But neither side has much room for manoeuvre. With China now looming large in Latin America, the European Union will hope to regain influence with a summit in late 2023, when Spain holds the union’s presidency. As authoritarians advance, democrats in Latin America will once again have their work cut out.■

Michael Reid: Senior editor and Bello columnist, The Economist

This article appeared in the The Americas section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2023 under the headline “Edging to the right”