Between 2000, when Vladimir Putin first became president, and 2019, 1.6m-2m Russians have left the country (out of a population of about 145m). These numbers are not in themselves surprising; in the turbulent decade after 1989 about 2.5m left. But since 2011-12 the rate of emigration has increased sharply (see chart)—and the profile of those leaving has changed dramatically. In 2012 Mr Putin took over the presidency again after an election marked by fraud and protests, confirming Russia’s authoritarian turn. Before then, those leaving did so mainly for economic reasons; afterwards, principally for political ones. A popular blog at the time was called “Pora valit”, meaning roughly “Time to shove off”. Thousands used it to exchange hints on how best to leave the country. In a survey conducted between 2017-18 by the Atlantic Council, a think-tank, 40% of emigrants who had left since 2000 cited the “general political climate” and 29% “persecution and poor human rights” as reasons to leave. Anecdotally, most of those who have left over the past month opposed the invasion of Ukraine. Some participated in protests.
Moreover, the political climate has tended to repulse the brainiest Russians. Those who have left since 2000 were mostly aged between 25 and 45 and highly educated. The evidence available suggests the scale of the brain-drain. Of the hundreds surveyed by the Atlantic Council, 36% had a master’s degree or a doctorate. Laws passed by Mr Putin’s government to restrict the ability of scientists to collaborate internationally and to conduct public outreach have encouraged many on their way.
Russian émigrés are behind some of the world’s most successful digital start-ups, such as Revolut, a mobile-banking app based in London co-founded by Nikolay Storonsky. It was valued at $33bn in 2021. Miro, a software publisher started by two Russian entrepreneurs, is now worth about $18bn. Those tech workers remaining in Russia have been among the most vocal opponents of the Ukraine war. Russia’s own Association for Electronic Communications, an industry body, says that up to 70,000 IT professionals have left since the war began and as many as 100,000 are expected to go in April. Many of them are now looking for lodgings in Tbilisi, Istanbul and Yerevan. Mr Putin won’t mourn the loss of what he calls a “fifth column” of traitors opposing the war, but the departure of wealth-creating, entrepreneurial talent will surely do further damage to an economy already reeling under sanctions. Thus, Mr Putin’s war threatens not only Ukraine’s future, but Russia’s too.
Our recent coverage of the Ukraine crisis can be found here