The Economist explains

How the war in Ukraine is accelerating Russia’s brain drain

For the best and brightest it is “time to shove off” again

A photograph taken on March 7, 2022 shows Russians as they take a taxi at the airport upon their arrival in Tbilisi. - Anti-Russian sentiment is rising, with some Western leaders expressing concerns that Georgia -- and another pro-Western ex-Soviet republic, Moldova -- could become the Kremlin's next target. Thousands signed an online petition demanding the government introduce a visa regime for Russian nationals and to toughen immigration rules. (Photo by Vano Shlamov / AFP) (Photo by VANO SHLAMOV/AFP via Getty Images)

POLAND AND GERMANY are among the European countries that have welcomed millions of desperate Ukrainian refugees. But Armenia, Georgia and Turkey, in particular, are learning to cope with another sort of refugee—Russians fleeing Russia. Since the invasion of Ukraine began on February 24th, tens of thousands of Russians have hurriedly left their homes, travelling to any nearby destination that will allow them in visa-free; one prominent economist estimated that at least 200,000 had fled by the second week of March. Georgia alone has reportedly accepted about 30,000. This stampede for the exits greatly accelerates a trend that has been on the rise for years.

Between 2000, when Vladimir Putin first became president, and 2019, 1.6m-2m Russians have left the country (out of a population of about 145m). These numbers are not in themselves surprising; in the turbulent decade after 1989 about 2.5m left. But since 2011-12 the rate of emigration has increased sharply (see chart)—and the profile of those leaving has changed dramatically. In 2012 Mr Putin took over the presidency again after an election marked by fraud and protests, confirming Russia’s authoritarian turn. Before then, those leaving did so mainly for economic reasons; afterwards, principally for political ones. A popular blog at the time was called “Pora valit”, meaning roughly “Time to shove off”. Thousands used it to exchange hints on how best to leave the country. In a survey conducted between 2017-18 by the Atlantic Council, a think-tank, 40% of emigrants who had left since 2000 cited the “general political climate” and 29% “persecution and poor human rights” as reasons to leave. Anecdotally, most of those who have left over the past month opposed the invasion of Ukraine. Some participated in protests.

Moreover, the political climate has tended to repulse the brainiest Russians. Those who have left since 2000 were mostly aged between 25 and 45 and highly educated. The evidence available suggests the scale of the brain-drain. Of the hundreds surveyed by the Atlantic Council, 36% had a master’s degree or a doctorate. Laws passed by Mr Putin’s government to restrict the ability of scientists to collaborate internationally and to conduct public outreach have encouraged many on their way.

Russian émigrés are behind some of the world’s most successful digital start-ups, such as Revolut, a mobile-banking app based in London co-founded by Nikolay Storonsky. It was valued at $33bn in 2021. Miro, a software publisher started by two Russian entrepreneurs, is now worth about $18bn. Those tech workers remaining in Russia have been among the most vocal opponents of the Ukraine war. Russia’s own Association for Electronic Communications, an industry body, says that up to 70,000 IT professionals have left since the war began and as many as 100,000 are expected to go in April. Many of them are now looking for lodgings in Tbilisi, Istanbul and Yerevan. Mr Putin won’t mourn the loss of what he calls a “fifth column” of traitors opposing the war, but the departure of wealth-creating, entrepreneurial talent will surely do further damage to an economy already reeling under sanctions. Thus, Mr Putin’s war threatens not only Ukraine’s future, but Russia’s too.

Our recent coverage of the Ukraine crisis can be found here

More from The Economist explains:
How will the loss of so many people change Ukraine?
Could Vladimir Putin be prosecuted by a Nuremberg-style tribunal?
The war in Ukraine, explained in maps

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